Your Monthly Roundup of Canada’s Commercial Real Estate News, Trends & Insights

Welcome back to The Briefcase, your curated monthly breakdown of the most relevant Commercial Real Estate (CRE) news shaping Canada’s investment landscape. Here’s everything you need to know this November. Courtesy of ASPC Properties...

Multi-Residential / Apartment Market — Data & Trends

Rent growth: moderation to soft declines in many markets

National rent indices show rents have moderated; some national trackers reported small year-over-year declines in October/November while a few major centres tightened (GTA/QC markets show local divergence). Rentals.ca’s October national rent summary reported average asking rents easing in October.

Investor explanation: rent growth slowed as new supply and post-pandemic normalization meet changing demand patterns. Market selection matters — western energy-linked markets and student markets show pockets of strength.

Source Link: October 2025 Rentals.ca Rent Report

Vacancy & absorption: small shifts, regional differences

CMHC’s housing market pages and regional notes published in November show the rental market remains uneven across metro areas; some markets report modest vacancy increases while others tightened in Q3/Q4 data releases. (CMHC report pages / release calendar). Investor takeaway: monitor local Q3–Q4 vacancy metrics city by city — aggregated national figures mask important metro-level variations for asset underwriting.

Source Link: CMHC Reports Calendar

Housing starts for October 2025

New purpose-built rental development & completions

ConstructConnect’s starts and the industry project trackers show purpose-built rental starts and major pre-construction projects continue, but overall non-residential starts are forecast to moderate in 2025–2027. Several developer press releases in November confirm start/completion timelines for large multifamily projects (see ConstructConnect and developer feeds).

Investor explanation: pipeline volume keeps upward pressure on leasing absorption in development-heavy markets—careful timing of deliveries and lease-up assumptions are essential for pro forma accuracy.

Source Link: 2025 - Q1 - Construction Starts Forecast.pdf

Canada's Construction Starts Snapshot

Major acquisitions / dispositions & REIT activity

Across the month, institutional investors remained active selectively. Broker and market wrapups referenced several portfolio trades and REIT earnings that signal capital rotation into multifamily and industrial. (See Altus weekly summaries and broker bulletins).

Investor takeaway: REITs with balance-sheet flexibility are deploying capital into multifamily and industrial; watch for follow-on acquisitions and joint-venture dispositions as capital rebalances.

Source Link: November 26, 2025 - Canada commercial real estate market insights, indicators, and notable transactions

CBRE - Insights & Research

Financing trends and cap-rate movement

November commentary across CBRE/Colliers/Altus indicates cap-rate decompression moderated in core sectors (industrial, multifamily) while office cap rates remain wider. Capital markets pieces suggest modest cap-rate tightening as rate expectations improved in Nov.

Investor explanation: pricing is more sensitive in secondary assets and office; multifamily and industrial still attract lower cap rates where cash flows are stable.

Source Link: CRBE - Capital Markets

reQ Real Estate Quarterly Q3 2025

Demographics & immigration drivers

National policy and immigration programs continue to underpin long-term rental demand—market reports in November highlight sustained immigration-driven housing need, which supports multifamily fundamentals over the medium term. CMHC and municipal housing trackers are the go-to sources for migration and household formation updates. Investor takeaway: immigration is a structural demand tailwind for rental housing; prioritize markets with strong net migration and employment growth.

Source Link: CMHC Reports Calendar

rental_report_Q3-2025

Development Pipeline & Construction Activity

New pre-construction projects & major starts

ConstructConnect’s November briefs and the Construction Economy Brief reported that while total non-residential starts are rebalancing, several large presale and pre-construction multifamily projects proceeded to groundbreaking in key metros. ConstructConnect’s Q3/Q4 starts forecast covers these pipeline dynamics.

Investor explanation: developers remain cautious on timing and absorption; projects with strong presales or affordable/rental mandates are prioritized.

Source Link: The Construction Economy Brief for November 2025

2025 - Q1 - Construction Starts Forecast.pdf

Completions & conversions

A number of completions and office→residential conversion announcements were reported across regional press outlets and developer newsfeeds in November (see local RENX and developer press sections). Municipal conversion approvals remain a key watch item for conversion economics.

Investor takeaway: conversions can create value but require careful entitlements and capex budgeting—track municipal approvals and heritage or zoning constraints.

Source Link: Renx.ca

Market Sentiment & Valuation Trends

Investor Sentiment Stays Cautious but Stable (Altus Group Q3 2025)

(Figure 1: National markets - OCR trends for four benchmark asset classes)

Altus Group’s latest data shows a –0.03% overall change in Canadian CRE valuations, signaling a steady yet cautious market. Grocery-anchored retail continues to lead, posting a +0.36% increase.

Key takeaway: Investors are sticking to defensive assets while avoiding speculative moves.

Source Link:
https://www.altusgroup.com/insights/canadian-cre-investment-trends/
(Full PDF available on the page)

Valuation Analysis PDF & Summary:
https://www.altusgroup.com/insights/canadian-cre-valuation-analysis/

Weekly CRE pulse: market indicators and notable transactions

Altus Group’s weekly CRE roundup (published Nov 26) highlights the latest deal flow, transaction activity and market indicators across office, industrial and retail markets — showing that transaction volumes remain muted but selective deals continue where financing and fundamentals align .

Investor takeaway: expect continued price discovery — institutional capital is selective, favouring high-quality industrial and core retail assets while secondary office continues to require creative financing or repositioning.

Source Link: altusgroup.com

Capital Markets & Financing Environment

Financing Environment Shows Signs of Improvement (Largo Capital)

A November market commentary from Largo Capital suggests that federal incentives and policy updates may help unlock more financing into 2026. Lenders are becoming slightly more flexible compared to earlier this year.

Key takeaway: Capital markets are starting to thaw — slowly.

Source Link:
https://largocapital.com/canada-market-update-cre-momentum-2026/

Financing & capital markets — cautious return of activity

Several capital-markets reports from major brokers and data firms published in November show gradual improvements in lending sentiment and a modest uptick in deal activity as interest-rate expectations shift. CBRE commentary during November points to narrowing spreads in industrial and multifamily, while office remains under pressure.

Investor explanation: lenders are recalibrating underwriting (more stringent stress tests) but with central bank rate easing priced in, debt availability for core industrial/multifamily is improving faster than for offices needing recapitalization.

Source Link: https://www.cbre.com/insights

CBRE Capital Markets https://www.cbre.com/insights/books/us-real-estate-market-outlook-2025/capital-markets

Industrial Market Trends

Industrial Growth Faces Regional Pressure (RENX)

Members of the industrial panel during the Atlantic Real Estate Forum in Halifax. (Tania Theriault, RENX)

RENX reported that industrial development in Atlantic Canada is being slowed by rising land prices and construction costs, despite high demand linked to population growth.

Key takeaway: Industrial remains strong nationwide, but regional economics matter.

Source Link:
https://renx.ca/rising-land-costs-hamper-atlantic-canada-industrial-development

Industrial: supply moderating, availability creeping higher

Figure 1: Canada’s total investment activity - All sectors by region (Q2 2024 vs. Q2 2025)

Altus and Colliers updates (Q3 / Nov commentary) show industrial availability ticked up in some markets as new supply completed and occupier demand normalized after pandemic highs. ConstructConnect’s starts data and forecasts also point to a rebalancing in non-residential construction activity.

Investor takeaway: look for smaller cap-rate compression in industrial vs. 2023–24 — strong logistics nodes and last-mile facilities still command premium pricing, but near-term yield expectations have stabilized.

Source Link: Canadian commercial real estate market update - Q2 2025 (Altus Group)

reQ Real Estate Quarterly Q3 202 (Colliers)

Canada's Construction Starts Snapshot

Retail Market Performance

Retail Remains the Winning CRE Asset Class (Altus Group)

(Figure 1 - All assets value change, 2019-2025 year-to-date)

Altus Group’s valuation review highlights that necessity-based retail continues to outperform other asset types, driven by stable tenant categories and consistent consumer demand.

Key takeaway: Retail is resilient — especially grocery-anchored and essential-service centers.

Source Link:
https://www.altusgroup.com/insights/canadian-cre-valuation-analysis/
(PDF available on the page)

Retail: resilient leasing, selective investor interest

FIGURE 11: Canada Retail New Supply by Format

Retail leasing metrics remain healthy for well-positioned malls and necessity retail (reports through November). U.S. retail REIT earnings and market outlooks (cited for trend context) show robust leasing at quality centers — a pattern echoed in Canadian primary markets.

Investor explanation: grocery-anchored, experiential retail and net-lease product continue to attract capital; investors should stress test tenant fundamentals and rent-roll diversification.

Source Link: CBRE Market Outlook - Retail

https://www.reuters.com/business/simon-property-group-raises-annual-real-estate-ffo-forecast-resilient-leasing-2025-11-03/

Office Sector Trends

Office Development Pipeline Still Moving (ConstructConnect)

Despite persistent vacancy concerns, developers are still planning for future office demand. ConstructConnect released its list of Top 10 Pre-Bid Office Projects in Canada (Nov 2025), highlighting continued investment in future-ready office spaces.

Key takeaway: The office market isn’t dead — it’s transforming.

Source Link:
https://canada.constructconnect.com/dcn/news/projects/2025/11/top-10-pre-bid-office-projects-in-canada-november-2025

Office: continued bifurcation and transaction opportunities

Office markets remain bifurcated — trophy downtown assets with strong credit tenants outperform, while older suburban and secondary office face higher vacancies and financing stress. Market narratives in November emphasize opportunistic buyers and recapitalizations for problem assets.

Investor takeaway: offices will remain a selective play: value-add repositioning, conversions (office→residential/mixed-use) and green retrofits are where returns can be generated.

Source Link: CRE This Week: What's impacting the Canadian market (November 26, 2025)

Institutional Strategy & Portfolio Shifts

H&R REIT Sells $1.5B in Office & Retail Assets

Real Estate Assets (Fair Value by Segment) (1)(2) - September 30, 2025 (CNW Group/H&R Real Estate Investment Trust)

H&R REIT announced binding agreements to sell USD $1.5B worth of properties, marking a major strategic shift. Post-transaction, the REIT’s portfolio will be 83% residential and industrial.

Key takeaway: Big institutional players are reallocating away from office and traditional retail.

Source Link:
https://www.newswire.ca/news-releases/h-amp-r-reit-announces-1-5-billion-of-retail-and-office-property-sales-889955310.html

Technology & Innovation in CRE

AI Adoption is Reshaping Leasing Efficiency (PR Newswire)

New industry insights show that AI-driven marketing and automation tools are helping accelerate leasing cycles, especially in competitive office and industrial markets.

Key takeaway: Tech adoption is no longer optional in CRE — it’s becoming standard.

Source Link:
https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/realtyads-unveils-new-insights-on-how-ai-is-transforming-leasing-efficiency-in-commercial-real-estate-302624007.html

Brokerage & Industry Leadership Updates

RE/MAX Canada Expands Commercial Team (CoStar)

RE/MAX Canada appointed Damon Conrad as Vice President of Commercial, strengthening their nationwide CRE capabilities and expanding resources for commercial brokers.

Key takeaway: Brokerages continue strengthening their commercial divisions to meet market demand.

Source Link:
https://www.costar.com/article/734725631/re-max-canada-hires-real-estate-veteran-to-oversee-commercial-business

Notable Sources & Where to Read More

• Altus Group — CRE This Week (Nov 26, 2025). Weekly market pulse and transactions.

• CMHC — reports & releases (housing starts, rental market pages; CMHC reports calendar).

• CBRE — market insights & outlook commentary (Nov 2025 research hub). CBRE

• Colliers — Q3/Q4 market commentary and mid-year outlooks. Colliers

• ConstructConnect — Construction Economy Brief + Construction Starts Forecast (Q3/2025).

• Rentals.ca — October 2025 national rent report (rent moderation). Rentals.ca

• RENX (Real Estate News Exchange) — regional transaction and development briefs.

Final Takeaway for November 2025

• Retail remains the most stable and high-performing CRE asset.

• Office is evolving, not disappearing — and development pipelines prove it.

• Industrial remains strong, but cost pressure is slowing growth in some regions.

• Major owners continue shifting toward residential and industrial.

• Financing conditions may improve heading into 2026.

• AI is rapidly transforming how leasing and marketing are done.

• Selectivity rules. Capital remains available but is choosy — prioritize core industrial, stabilized multifamily, and retail with necessity/experiential tenants.

• Office is an active play for repositioning. Opportunistic buyers with rehab or conversion plans can generate outsized returns where financing and zoning allow.

• Watch the pipeline. New rental completions and presales will affect lease-up dynamics; model absorption conservatively.

• Local metrics matter. National averages hide metro-level variation — use CMHC, Urbanation (for GGH/Ottawa/Montreal), and local market trackers to underwrite deals.

• Financing & timing are crucial. As rate expectations evolve toward easing, refinancing windows will open — but stress test for tighter underwriting until mortgages are executed.